The final release of the October UMBC Poll also puts Gov. Wes Moore under 50 percent approval and finds nearly half of likely voters saying the state is on the wrong track.
By Michael Phillips | MDBayNews
Eighty percent of Maryland likely voters say new data centers will have a mostly negative effect on the cost of household electricity. Six percent say the effect will be mostly positive. It is the sharpest number in Part 3 of the UMBC Poll, released at 12:01 a.m. Thursday.
The same release has Gov. Wes Moore at 49 percent approval and 42 percent disapproval. Forty-nine percent of likely voters say Maryland is on the wrong track, and 37 percent say it is headed in the right direction. The UMBC Institute of Politics surveyed 776 likely voters from Sept. 22 to 27. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.
“Eighty percent of Maryland likely voters say new data centers will have a mostly negative effect on the cost of household electricity.”
A governor under 50, with the intensity running against him
Moore’s 49 percent is a plurality, not a majority. Behind the topline, 15 percent strongly approve, and 26 percent strongly disapprove. Voters who feel strongly against him outnumber those who feel strongly for him by 11 points. His overall approval still runs seven points ahead of his disapproval, so the intensity gap and the topline point in different directions.
“Voters who feel strongly against him outnumber those who feel strongly for him by 11 points.”
The party split is as wide as ever. Democrats approve 70 to 21. Republicans disapprove 88 to 7. Unaffiliated voters disapprove 49 to 37. On the direction of the state, only half of Democrats say right direction, while 30 percent say wrong track.
The crosstabs show where approval is thinner. These are subgroup results, so the margins of error are larger:
- Unaffiliated voters: 37 percent approve, 49 percent disapprove
- Baltimore metro group: 43 percent approve, 50 percent disapprove
- Voters outside the D.C. and Baltimore metros: 41 percent approve, 49 percent disapprove
- Voters without a bachelor’s degree: 39 percent approve, 52 percent disapprove
The Montgomery and Prince George’s County group is the exception, at 64 percent approve and 26 percent disapprove. That group makes up 31 percent of the sample.
UMBC’s earlier polls put Moore’s approval at 54 percent in October 2024, 52 percent in February 2025 and October 2025, and 48 percent in March 2026. Those surveys covered all Maryland adults, while this one covers likely voters, so the comparison is not apples to apples.
Four in five rate the economy poor or fair
Eighty-one percent rate Maryland’s economic conditions over the past year as poor or fair. Seventeen percent say good or excellent. Looking ahead, 43 percent expect conditions to be worse a year from now, 37 percent expect about the same, and 12 percent expect better.
That is not only a Republican view. Poor or fair ratings came from 93 percent of Republicans, 89 percent of unaffiliated voters and 74 percent of Democrats.
“Eighty-one percent rate Maryland’s economic conditions over the past year as poor or fair.”
Voters could also pick every factor they typically think about when judging the state economy:
- Prices of everyday goods and services: 94 percent
- Personal finances: 90 percent
- Cost of housing: 86 percent
- State taxes and fees: 84 percent
- Interest rates: 74 percent
- State unemployment rate and job reports: 67 percent
- Stock market index: 41 percent
The poll did not ask which factor drives a voter’s rating, so the list shows what people weigh and not what moved them. Still, state taxes and fees made the list for 84 percent, two points behind the cost of housing.
Data centers: lopsided results
Voters were asked about seven possible effects of new data center construction in Maryland. “Mostly negative” beat “mostly positive” on every one. The rest said no real impact or did not know.
“‘Mostly negative’ beat ‘mostly positive’ on every one.”
- Cost of household electricity: 80 percent negative, 6 percent positive
- Quality of life near data center sites: 75 percent negative, 7 percent positive
- Water quality: 68 percent negative, 7 percent positive
- Air quality: 60 percent negative, 7 percent positive
- The state economy: 49 percent negative, 19 percent positive
- Tax revenue for the state and local communities: 48 percent negative, 20 percent positive
- Jobs and employment opportunities: 37 percent negative, 26 percent positive
Jobs was the industry’s best showing, and negative still led.
Voters were randomly split. Each got only one of two questions: 370 were asked about new data centers in Maryland, and 406 were asked about one near their own community. UMBC wanted to see whether proximity would change the answer. On the numbers, it barely did, though each half is smaller than the full sample, so its margin of error is larger and the one-point gap is not a tested difference. Seventy-eight percent opposed new data centers in the state and 13 percent supported them. Seventy-seven percent opposed one near their community, and 16 percent supported it. Strong opposition did run higher on the local question, 63 percent against 52 percent.
“On the numbers, it barely did, though each half is smaller than the full sample, so its margin of error is larger and the one-point gap is not a tested difference.”
Democrats were among the most opposed. In the half asked about data centers in Maryland, 86 percent of Democrats and 89 percent of unaffiliated voters opposed them, compared with 54 percent of Republicans. One in three Republicans, 33 percent, supported them. On electricity costs, 83 percent of Democrats, 91 percent of unaffiliated voters and 66 percent of Republicans expected a mostly negative effect. These party results rest on small samples, and the unaffiliated group is the smallest.
The pattern is not a simple partisan one. Republicans were the least opposed group in the poll, yet the Republican nominee is the candidate calling for a statewide moratorium. The poll does not say how any of this will affect the vote.
“Republicans were the least opposed group in the poll, yet the Republican nominee is the candidate calling for a statewide moratorium.”
A governor who changed course
Moore’s record on the industry is now part of that picture, and The Baltimore Banner has laid much of it out.
- In 2023, after state utility regulators denied fast-track reviews for backup generators at Maryland’s first hyperscale data center campus in Frederick County, Moore promised to rewrite policy so the industry would have a bright future in the state.
- In 2024, he pushed a bill to ease state reviews of those backup generators. The General Assembly approved it unanimously.
- In 2025, he vetoed legislation to study the industry’s energy and environmental effects. Lawmakers overrode him months later.
- This year, his Commerce Department defended the state’s 2020 data center tax exemption in testimony to lawmakers.
Then the politics moved. On Sept. 23, Moore signed an executive order that applies to data center facilities or campuses with a projected or actual peak electric demand of 25 megawatts or more. It creates the Maryland Data Center Accountability Task Force, run out of the governor’s office, to coordinate the state’s review of those projects. The task force issues one of three findings: aligned, conditionally aligned, or not aligned with the order’s principles. The order also sets up a public dashboard updated at least monthly. It excludes facilities run by or dedicated to the mission of higher education institutions, health care institutions, state agencies and Defense Department sites. The Banner reports that it also bars state agencies from signing nondisclosure agreements with developers.
Moore also said he would work with lawmakers to repeal the 2020 exemption, which a Good Jobs First report, as cited by the Banner, says cost Maryland $22 million in forgone revenue this year. The Banner reported that he told Punchbowl News days earlier that he would “absolutely” sign a statewide moratorium or ban if the legislature passed one.
The order does not impose a statewide pause. Under its terms, the task force and state agencies are to give weight to the host jurisdiction’s land use decisions, and a project denied a required local approval cannot be rated aligned or conditionally aligned while that denial stands. Moore has said final say belongs to local governments. The poll measures what voters expect, not how much data centers have actually raised household bills. He has attributed the change in posture to the Trump administration’s rollbacks of data center regulation and to the growing scale of the projects. As the Banner quoted him, leaders who do not protect their people from the industry are “derelict in your duty.”
Republican Dan Cox, the GOP nominee, has called for an immediate statewide moratorium on hyperscale data centers and has made the issue a dividing line with Moore. Cox and Green Party nominee Andy Ellis both said the order fell short of a ban. Republican-led Harford County approved the state’s first indefinite ban in June, and the Banner reports that more than a dozen local governments, from the D.C. suburbs to the Eastern Shore, have adopted moratoriums. Del. C.T. Wilson, a Charles County Democrat, plans to introduce a multiyear pause in the next legislative session.
“The poll measures what voters expect, not how much data centers have actually raised household bills.”
The mood is not unique to Maryland. A Pew Research Center survey of 10,548 U.S. adults, conducted July 20 to Aug. 9, found 50 percent saying data centers are mostly bad for home energy costs, up from 38 percent in January. The wording, answer choices, and population differ from the UMBC poll, so the numbers cannot be lined up directly. They point the same way.
One more finding on artificial intelligence
Sixty-seven percent of likely voters say artificial intelligence will have a negative impact on society, with 37 percent saying very negative. Twenty-three percent say positive. Republicans were the least negative, at 57 percent, and the most positive, at 33 percent. Seventy-one percent of Democrats and 70 percent of unaffiliated voters said negative.
What the poll does not say
Moore still has more voters approving than disapproving. In the first part of this same poll, he led Cox 51 percent to 24 percent among likely voters, as MDBayNews reported Oct. 6. This is a snapshot from late September, not a forecast.
The poll did not ask voters whether they hold Moore responsible for data center growth or for electricity costs. The findings on the governor and the findings on data centers are separate results, and this report treats them that way.
“The poll did not ask voters whether they hold Moore responsible for data center growth or for electricity costs.”
On method, 65 percent of interviews were text-to-web, 28 percent were live-caller cell phone, and 7 percent were live-caller landline. ReconMR supplied the sample and data collection. The data are weighted by gender, age, race, geography, and education, but not by party, ideology, or income. The sample was 60 percent Democratic, 25 percent Republican, 14 percent unaffiliated, and 1 percent another party. UMBC says the margin of error is higher for subgroups and is not adjusted for design effects.
What to Watch
- Registration, early voting, and Election Day. The deadline to register online or by mail is Oct. 13, according to MDBayNews’ Oct. 6 report, which cited the State Board of Elections and FOX45. Early voting runs Oct. 22 through Oct. 29, from 7 a.m. to 8 p.m. each day. Election Day is Nov. 3.
- A statewide pause. Wilson’s proposal would test Moore’s stated willingness to sign one when the General Assembly returns.
- The tax exemption. Moore has said he will work with lawmakers to repeal the 2020 data center exemption.
- The new task force. Its first aligned, conditionally aligned or not aligned findings on proposed projects will show how the order works in practice.
Related MDBayNews coverage: UMBC Poll Backs Up Moore’s 27-Point Lead; Utility Bills, a $3 Billion Gap and Persistent Outmigration; Beyond Affordability: The Local Fights Shaping County Races.
Sources: This report draws on the UMBC Poll Part 3 release, methodology statement, topline results and crosstabs workbook from the UMBC Institute of Politics, embargoed to 12:01 a.m. Oct. 8, 2026 (politics.umbc.edu/the-umbc-poll); Maryland Executive Order on data centers, Sept. 23, 2026 (governor.maryland.gov/media/1083); Adam Willis and Brenda Wintrode, “Facing data center backlash, Moore lays out a plan but not a pause,” The Baltimore Banner, Sept. 23, 2026; Willis and Wintrode, “Moore wanted to ‘supercharge’ Maryland data centers. Now he’s changing course,” The Baltimore Banner, Oct. 1, 2026; Christine Condon, “Moore and Cox differ on data centers at Maryland conference,” Maryland Matters, Aug. 15, 2026; Brian Kennedy, “Americans’ views of data centers have turned more negative,” Pew Research Center, Sept. 22, 2026; the Maryland State Board of Elections’ “Voting in Maryland” page for 2026 general election dates; and MDBayNews’ Oct. 6, 2026 report on Part 1 of the UMBC Poll.
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