A university poll released Wednesday finds more voters opposed than in favor in every party group. The wording behind the number matters, and so do the other polls.
By Michael Phillips | MDBayNews
Only one in four Maryland likely voters says they plan to vote for Question 3. The UMBC Poll, released early Wednesday, found 53% planning to vote against the amendment, 25% for it, 19% not sure, and 3% declining to answer. The institute did not read voters the ballot language. It told them that a vote for Question 3 “eliminates the state’s requirement that congressional districts be compact and connected,” while a vote against keeps those requirements in place.
The survey interviewed 776 likely voters from Sept. 22 to 27, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. It was run by the UMBC Institute of Politics, which says it is funded by the university’s College of Arts, Humanities, and Social Sciences. Like any poll, it describes where voters stood in late September. It is not a forecast of the Nov. 3 result.
The numbers
- All likely voters: 53% against, 25% for, 19% don’t know, 3% refused.
- Democrats: 42% against, 35% for, 20% don’t know.
- Republicans: 74% against, 9% for, 16% don’t know.
- Unaffiliated voters: 59% against, 17% for, 22% don’t know.
Subgroup rows do not add to 100% because some respondents declined to answer.
Moore hasn’t brought his own party with him
Gov. Wes Moore, a Democrat, said in Tuesday’s debate that he will vote yes on Question 3, arguing the power belongs with the people and not with Donald Trump. Democratic leaders have pitched the amendment as flexibility to respond if Republican-led states redraw their maps.
“A plurality of Democratic likely voters, 42%, plan to vote no, and 35% plan to vote yes.”
His fellow Democrats have not followed him in the poll. A plurality of Democratic likely voters, 42%, plan to vote no, and 35% plan to vote yes. Another 20% are undecided. The geography tells a similar story. Among all likely voters in Montgomery and Prince George’s counties, the Washington suburbs, 50% were against, and 28% were for. Among self-described progressives, 46% were against, and 34% were for. Those subgroup numbers carry larger margins of error than the 3.5-point figure for the full sample, and UMBC says so in its methodology.
Republican nominee Dan Cox took the other side in the same debate. “If it’s wrong for them, it’s wrong for us,” Cox said, according to FOX45. He also argued that the ballot language is confusing and that the amendment could lead to districts that stretch across far-flung parts of the state.
Voters dislike the practice itself
The poll asked separately about drawing district lines to favor one party. Eighty-three percent of likely voters called it a major problem facing American democracy. That held across the parties: 82% of Democrats, 85% of Republicans and 82% of unaffiliated voters.
“Eighty-three percent of likely voters called partisan line drawing a major problem facing American democracy.”
A follow-up question went further. Forty-nine percent said they do not like partisan line drawing and it should not be done, and another 8% said they like it, but it is the wrong thing to do. That makes 57% opposed in principle. Thirty percent said they dislike it, but sometimes it is necessary, and 6% said lawmakers should do it, for a combined 36%.
Democrats were the group that leaned toward necessity. Among them, 41% said it is sometimes necessary, and 32% said it should not be done. Among Republicans, 79% said it should not be done. Among unaffiliated voters, 61% said the same.
The Harris district
Maryland Matters reported in September that Democrats would likely target the Eastern Shore district represented by Rep. Andy Harris, R-1st, the only Republican in the state’s congressional delegation. At the Tawes crab feast in Crisfield, Harris put it in one line: “If you like gerrymandering, vote for Question 3.”
Dan Schwartz, the Democratic nominee running against Harris, told Maryland Matters he will vote against the amendment personally and called it a distraction.
What this poll does not settle
As noted above, UMBC did not read respondents the ballot text. It used a plain-language description, and the institute says so in a footnote, adding that wording and framing can move support on ballot measures. The second question also told respondents that passage would give Democratic lawmakers more power to redraw lines in their favor, “like Republicans in other states have done.” That framing could move answers too.
The Supreme Court of Maryland rewrote the ballot question on Sept. 3, after finding part of the General Assembly’s wording misleading and a violation of due process. The question on the ballot now says the amendment would do three things. It would clarify that certain requirements apply only to legislative districts. It would allow the General Assembly to give the Supreme Court original jurisdiction over congressional plans. And it would provide that nothing in the Maryland Constitution supplies criteria for congressional district boundaries. Justice Steven Gould, joined by Senior Justice Glenn Harrell, dissented. He argued the court should not rewrite the question and that the new version still would not tell voters the amendment removes the Declaration of Rights as a source of criteria.
“The three surveys are not measuring precisely the same thing.”
Two earlier polls did read the ballot language, and both came from groups with a stake in the outcome:
- Protect Maryland Votes, which opposes Question 3: 41% against, 28% for, 31% undecided. Conducted Sept. 10 to 13 among 600 likely voters by Ragnar Research Partners, a Republican firm, and Lincoln Park Strategies, a Democratic one. Margin of error plus or minus 4 points.
- Fight Back Maryland, which supports it: 40% for, 35% against, 25% undecided when voters heard the ballot language. Support rose to 53% after a positive messaging statement. Conducted Sept. 8 to 10 among 600 likely voters by Hart Research Associates, which works with Democratic candidates. Margin of error plus or minus 4 points.
Each side dismissed the other’s pollster. UMBC’s number is the widest of the three, and the institute says the poll is university-funded. Hart’s own memo noted that the most common open-ended answer was that voters did not understand the amendment. Nineteen percent of UMBC’s likely voters were still unsure.
“UMBC’s number is the widest of the three.”
The three surveys are not measuring precisely the same thing. The two September polls tested reactions to the language voters will see on their ballots. UMBC tested reactions after giving respondents a shorter description of what a yes or no vote would do. UMBC Poll Director Mileah Kromer told Maryland Matters the results point to a “disconnect” between reading the full ballot language and grasping its political ramifications. The 53% opposition figure may say as much about how well voters understand the amendment as it does about movement in the electorate.
“The 53% opposition figure may say as much about how well voters understand the amendment as it does about movement in the electorate.”
Other findings in the release
On primaries, 60% of likely voters said Maryland should switch to an open system where unaffiliated voters can vote in either party’s primary, and 32% said it should keep the closed system. Democrats favored the change 63% to 30% and unaffiliated voters 74% to 14%. Republicans were nearly split, with 48% for keeping closed primaries and 44% for opening them.
Large majorities also called the influence of money in politics (88%) and declining trust in government (88%) major problems.
What to Watch
- Mail ballots are already out. Maryland Matters reports nearly 600,000 voters have received them.
- Part 3 of the UMBC Poll is scheduled for release Thursday, Oct. 8, at 12:01 a.m.
- Early voting runs Oct. 22 through Oct. 29, from 7 a.m. to 8 p.m. each day, including the weekend.
- Mail-in ballot requests must be received by Oct. 27 to have a ballot mailed, or by Oct. 30 to print one at home.
- Election Day is Nov. 3, with polls open 7 a.m. to 8 p.m. Mailed ballots must be postmarked or placed in a drop box by 8 p.m. that night.
MDBayNews has covered the amendment since the special session. See the Sept. 18 explainer on what Question 3 does, the Sept. 28 week in review on the dueling polls, and Tuesday’s report on the UMBC governor’s race numbers.
Sources
This report draws on the UMBC Poll Part 2 release, topline results and crosstab workbook from the UMBC Institute of Politics, embargoed to Oct. 7, 2026; Mikenzie Frost, “Poll finds Maryland voters wary of giving lawmakers more redistricting power,” FOX45 News (WBFF), Oct. 7, 2026; WBFF Staff, “Cox, Moore spar over taxes, Trump & immigration in Maryland governor’s debate,” FOX45 News, Oct. 6, 2026; Mikenzie Frost, “Maryland Supreme Court keeps redistricting question on ballot, orders clearer language,” FOX45 News, Sept. 3, 2026; Bryan P. Sears, “Poll finds opposition to Maryland redistricting ballot question,” Maryland Matters, Sept. 22, 2026, “Poll: Voters oppose redistricting ballot question when presented meat of the political outcome,” Maryland Matters, Oct. 7, 2026, and “Poll: Wording of redistricting amendment difficult for voters to understand,” Maryland Matters, Sept. 24, 2026; William J. Ford, “Windy, with outbreaks of handshaking and backslapping at Tawes crab feast,” Maryland Matters, Sept. 24, 2026; and the Maryland State Board of Elections 2026 general election page, including the current Question 3 ballot language, reviewed Oct. 7, 2026. Prior MDBayNews coverage was published Sept. 18, Sept. 28 and Oct. 6, 2026.
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