An independent survey matches the August margin. The rest of the poll shows undecided voters, a Democratic base that is not unanimous, and low marks for both parties.
By Michael Phillips | MDBayNews
Gov. Wes Moore leads Republican nominee Dan Cox 51% to 24% among likely voters, according to a new poll from the University of Maryland, Baltimore County. The survey came out Tuesday, the same day the two men meet in what is expected to be their only debate of the race.
The UMBC Poll interviewed 776 Maryland likely voters from Sept. 22 to 27 and carries a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. It was run by UMBC’s Institute of Politics using live callers and text-to-web, and the institute says it is funded by the university’s College of Arts, Humanities, and Social Sciences.
That matters because of what came before it. When MDBayNews reported on Aug. 13 about the Zenith Research poll that had Moore up 58% to 31%, that survey had been commissioned by Blended Public Affairs and the Annapolis lobbying firm Perry Jacobson, and no independent head-to-head poll had been released to check it. Now one does. Different pollster, different sample, same 27-point margin. That does not mean voters stood still. Moore’s number is seven points lower than in August, and Cox’s is seven points lower too, and the two surveys used different samples and methods.
“Different pollster, different sample, same 27-point margin.”
None of that changes the headline number. It is a wide gap, though it describes where voters stood in late September and is not a forecast of the Nov. 3 result. The same release has a few figures that look different once you get past the topline.
What the numbers leave open
- A quarter of likely voters did not name either man. Fourteen percent were undecided, 5% chose “some other candidate,” and Green Party nominee Andy Ellis and Working Class Party nominee Cathy White each drew 3%.
- Moore’s own party is not unanimous. He gets 72% of Democrats. Another 13% of Democrats are undecided and 4% back Cox.
- Unaffiliated voters have the most room to move. Moore already leads Cox 40% to 14% among them, but 27% have not decided. UMBC notes that the margin of error is larger for subgroups like this one.
- A quarter of voters can’t place Cox. Sixty percent called him conservative or very conservative, 11% called him a moderate, and 26% said they did not know how to describe his politics.
“Even if every undecided voter and every third-party or other-candidate supporter went to Cox, he would reach 49% to Moore’s 51%.”
That quarter is not all available to Cox. Eleven points of it went to Ellis, White, or another candidate. Even if every undecided voter and every third-party or other-candidate supporter went to Cox, he would reach 49% to Moore’s 51%, assuming Moore’s support held.
Todd Eberly, a political science professor at St. Mary’s College of Maryland, noted that Moore is an incumbent Democrat polling at 51% and winning about three-quarters of his own party. He said that would “normally be the recipe for the potential for a Republican to be competitive,” then added that Republicans are not competitive at all this year.
The other numbers offer Cox little comfort, either. Moore’s supporters are more firmly committed, with 84% saying they are set on their choice compared with 74% of Cox’s supporters. Mileah Kromer, director of UMBC’s Institute of Politics, said the results show Cox “is not rebuilding the Larry Hogan coalition,” because his support comes almost entirely from Republicans, who back him at 75%. Maryland Matters put the usual statewide Republican formula at about 90% of Republicans, roughly three in 10 Democrats, and more than 55% of unaffiliated voters. Cox is at 75%, 4%, and 14% in this poll. The same story noted that 47% of voters in a 2018 Kromer poll called Hogan a moderate, while 11% say that of Cox now.
“Cox is not rebuilding the Larry Hogan coalition.”
Neither party gets a pass
Pollsters also asked voters whether six descriptions fit each of the state’s major parties. The figures below are the share who said the description fits the party. Republicans fared worse on all six, but a majority said the Democratic Party is out of touch and controlled by special interests or big donors.
“A majority said the Democratic Party is out of touch and controlled by special interests or big donors.”
| Description | Maryland Democratic Party | Maryland Republican Party |
|---|---|---|
| Organized | 47% | 43% |
| Out of touch with average voters | 54% | 66% |
| Controlled by special interests or big donors | 59% | 71% |
| Too extreme in policy positions | 36% | 64% |
| Welcomes different viewpoints | 47% | 27% |
| Effective at winning elections in the state | 72% | 25% |
“The poll does not show that voters who criticize Maryland Democrats are moving to Cox.”
The poll does not show that voters who criticize Maryland Democrats are moving to Cox. Republicans were rated worse on all six measures, and Moore still holds 51% overall.
On Moore himself, 36% of likely voters called him a moderate. Another 30% called him progressive and 18% very progressive, which means 48% placed him on the progressive side. Just 8% called him conservative or very conservative.
The 2022 comparison
Maryland Matters noted that the roughly 2-to-1 margin resembles the 2022 race, when Moore beat Cox by 32 percentage points. The 27-point margin here is five points smaller than that result, though a poll with 14% undecided is not directly comparable to a final vote count. Kromer said Cox lacks the campaign money to make a case that he is a moderate.
What to watch
- Tuesday’s debate. Moore and Cox debate on Maryland Public Television. The hour-long program was recorded earlier in the day and airs at 7 p.m. Ellis and White are not on the stage because they fall short of MPT’s 10% polling threshold.
- More UMBC results. Part 2 of the poll is scheduled for release Wednesday, Oct. 7, and Part 3 on Thursday, Oct. 8.
- Voting calendar. Nearly 600,000 voters have already received mail-in ballots. The deadline to register online or by mail is Oct. 13, and requests for a mail-in ballot delivered by mail or fax must be received by Oct. 27. Voters who want a print-at-home ballot have until Oct. 30 and must supply their own return envelope. Early voting runs Oct. 22 through Oct. 29, and Election Day is Nov. 3. Voters can also register in person during early voting and on Election Day. Mailed ballots must be postmarked by Nov. 3, and drop-box returns are due by 8 p.m. that day.
Sources
This report draws on the UMBC Poll topline and methodology release, “UMBC Poll: Maryland Governor’s Race,” embargoed to Oct. 6, 2026, from the UMBC Institute of Politics; Bryan P. Sears, “Poll: Moore sits with a comfortable 2-1 margin over Republican challenger Cox,” Maryland Matters, Oct. 6, 2026; Mikenzie Frost, “New UMBC Poll finds Moore with wide lead over Cox,” FOX45 News (WBFF), Oct. 6, 2026; Bryan P. Sears, “Poll: Moore enjoys comfortable early lead against Cox in governor’s rematch,” Maryland Matters, Aug. 12, 2026; “Maryland candidates for governor set to debate: Here’s what you need to know,” The Afro, on the debate schedule; MDBayNews’ own Aug. 13, 2026 report on the Zenith Research poll; the Maryland State Board of Elections’ 2026 general election dates page; and Alexa Dikos, “Maryland voters have until Oct. 13 to register online, by mail for general election,” FOX45 News, Sept. 29, 2026.
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