The Real Swing County: Anne Arundel Heads Into a Wide-Open November

Map of Anne Arundel County with Maryland flag design, featuring text about the 2026 open executive race and competitive council seats.

By MDBayNews Staff


ANNAPOLIS, Md. — If Harford County’s fall ballot is contested mostly on paper, Anne Arundel’s is contested for real. As of the state’s June 2026 registration count, the county had 173,831 registered Democrats, 129,128 Republicans and 112,326 unaffiliated voters, meaning Republicans account for roughly 31% of those three groups and the unaffiliated bloc is nearly as large as the Republican one. The county executive’s race has gone down to the wire in recent cycles. This year it’s an open seat, with a two-term county councilwoman facing a political newcomer, and at least two of the seven county council districts carry real histories of staying close.

Infographic showing voter registration statistics in Anne Arundel County for 2026, highlighting three voting blocs: Democrats (173,831), Republicans (129,128), and Unaffiliated (112,326).

An open seat after a nail-biter

Outgoing County Executive Steuart Pittman, a Democrat, is term-limited after two terms. His reelection in 2022 was closer than the final numbers suggest, and closer than his first win: he beat Republican Steve Schuh in 2018 by about 4.7 points, then Republican Jessica Haire, a sitting county councilwoman, led him by nearly 11,000 votes on election night in 2022, and by more than 7 points once Election Day and early votes were tallied. It took days of mail-ballot counting to flip the race. Pittman ultimately won by about 16,000 votes, 53.7% to 46.1%.

Infographic detailing the 2022 Anne Arundel County Executive race results, highlighting how initial election night leads changed after mail-in ballot counting. Key points include Haire's early lead of approximately 11,000 votes, being ahead by over 7 points after early voting, and the final certified counts showing Pittman at 53.7% and Haire at 46.1%.

That history matters because Democrat Allison Pickard, a two-term county councilwoman from Glen Burnie, won a contested Democratic primary in June, taking 42.9% of the vote over fellow council member Pete Smith and Pittman aide James Kitchin. A fourth candidate, Amtrak program manager Kyle Nembhard, remained on the ballot but had dropped out of the race and endorsed Kitchin about two weeks before primary day. She enters the fall with a fundraising edge, though a modest one by the end of the primary. State campaign finance filings from early June showed Pickard with $204,650 in cash on hand, more than any of her Democratic rivals, even though council colleague Pete Smith had actually edged ahead of her in total money raised by that point, $768,316 to her $755,937, after outspending her heavily along the way.

Her Republican opponent, Dave Crawford, ran unopposed for his party’s nomination. Crawford is a food service manager who has spent about a decade as chief of the volunteer Earleigh Heights Fire Company in Severna Park, and he’s a political newcomer running without paid staff. He’s been candid about the uphill climb. “People see my signs or hear my name, and go, ‘Well who is this guy really?'” he told the Baltimore Banner. “You just can’t know everybody in this county.” His campaign is built around adding police and fire personnel and cutting what he calls wasteful spending; Pickard is campaigning on affordable housing and school investment. Notably, Jessica Haire, the Republican who nearly unseated Pittman in 2022, weighed a second run and passed, leaving Crawford to carry the county’s GOP banner alone this time.

Promotional graphic for the open county executive seat in Anne Arundel County for the November 2026 election featuring candidates Allison Pickard (D) and Dave Crawford (R). The background shows a scenic waterfront view.

A council with two real swing districts, and a third newly in play

Anne Arundel’s county council has seven districts, and the primaries reshuffled more of them than usual: two sitting members left to run for county executive, two more aren’t seeking reelection, and one incumbent is defending a seat against a real Democratic challenge for the first time since 2018.

Map of Anne Arundel County highlighting three council districts: District 3 (newly contested), District 5 (historically close), and District 7 (historically close), with a scenic view of the Chesapeake Bay and the statehouse in the background.
  • District 1 (Glen Burnie/Brooklyn Park area) — Open. Incumbent Pete Smith ran for county executive and lost the primary. Democrat Kelly Smith, who won a three-way primary, faces Republican Justin Sherlock, who ran unopposed. This is a comfortably Democratic district; Pete Smith won his 2022 general election with about 61% of the vote.
  • District 2 (Glen Burnie) — Open. Incumbent Allison Pickard is the Democratic nominee for county executive. Democrat Catelyn Middlebrooks, who beat a primary challenger, faces Republican Cory Malinowski, unopposed. Also a reliably Democratic seat.
  • District 3 (Pasadena/Severn) — Incumbent Republican Nathan Volke ran unopposed in his primary and is defending the seat against Democrat Rebecca Baucom. Volke didn’t face a Democratic nominee on the printed ballot in 2022, only a write-in candidate who drew about 2% of the vote, so Baucom’s campaign is the first real Democratic contest here in years. This reads as a newly contested Republican-held seat more than a historical swing district; Volke’s past results have been lopsided.
  • District 4 (Laurel/Maryland City) — Incumbent Democrat Julie Hummer, who chairs the council, beat a primary challenger and faces Republican Thomas Dale Wieland, unopposed. Hummer won her last general election with about 72% of the vote.
  • District 5 (Crofton/Gambrills/Davidsonville) — This is the county’s closest council district on paper. Incumbent Republican Amanda Fiedler, unopposed in her primary, faces Democrat Natalie Ogilvie, also unopposed. Fiedler won her 2022 general election by about 6 points, 53% to 47%, over Democrat Carl Neimeyer.
  • District 6 (Annapolis and surrounding areas) — Open, and the most unusual matchup on the county’s ballot. Incumbent Democrat Lisa Rodvien did not seek reelection. Sitting Annapolis Mayor Gavin Buckley won a crowded five-way Democratic primary to run for the county seat instead of a third mayoral term, and will face Republican George Gallagher, unopposed, in November. Buckley had been floated as a possible county executive candidate as far back as 2024 before opting for the council race instead.
Campaign poster for Gavin Buckley, candidate for Annapolis Mayor and County Council District 6, featuring an image of Annapolis and a map highlighting District 6 in Anne Arundel County.
  • District 7 (South County/Edgewater) — Open. Incumbent Republican Shannon Leadbetter did not seek reelection. Democrat Spencer Jones, unopposed in his primary, faces Republican Dawn Pulliam, who won her party’s primary. Leadbetter herself won this seat by about 7 points in 2022, making it one of the county’s more competitive districts on paper.
Infographic showcasing key council races for Anne Arundel County in November 2026, highlighting candidates in Districts 3, 5, and 7.

The one big race that isn’t really a race

State’s Attorney Anne Colt Leitess, a Democrat seeking a third full term, does not have a Republican opponent this November. But her June primary against Carolynn Grammas, a longtime prosecutor in Leitess’s own office who left after two decades to challenge her, was pointed. Grammas, a lifelong Republican who switched parties, picked up an endorsement from the county’s police union and criticized Leitess over a high-profile murder case in which a circuit judge disqualified Leitess from personally prosecuting the defendant, ruling that Leitess had made herself a witness in the case by personally interviewing witnesses and had failed to disclose evidence favorable to the defense. Leitess appealed that disqualification, and the Maryland Supreme Court ruled in March 2026 that she had no right to appeal it, leaving the circuit judge’s decision in place without the higher court ruling on the underlying evidence dispute itself. Leitess won the primary comfortably regardless, with about 58% of the vote.

Why it matters

Anne Arundel is genuinely different terrain than a place like Harford. Its county executive race has been decided by single digits in each of the last two competitive cycles, in 2018 and 2022, and Districts 5 and 7 have produced single-digit margins in multiple recent elections even though neither has actually flipped parties in that time. District 3 is a different kind of story: not a historical swing seat, but a Republican-held district facing its first real Democratic challenge in years. Crawford faces a steep fundraising and name-recognition gap heading into November, and Pickard’s win in a contested primary suggests real organizational strength. But 2022 is a recent reminder that Election Day margins in this county can look very different once mail ballots are fully counted.

Graphic displaying election highlights for Anne Arundel County, featuring a Maryland map and key points about mail ballots and council districts.

What to Watch: Whether mail-ballot counting again reshapes a close race on election night, as it did in the 2022 executive contest, and whether Buckley’s move from Annapolis mayor to a single county council seat is a step toward a future countywide run.


Sources: Maryland State Board of Elections 2026 and 2022 general and primary candidate lists and returns (elections.maryland.gov; msa.maryland.gov/msa/mdmanual/36loc/an/elect), including the certified 2022 general election results by county; the Maryland State Board of Elections’ June 2026 monthly voter registration activity report (elections.maryland.gov/pdf/vrar); Maryland Association of Counties’ Conduit Street primary wrap-ups for the Anne Arundel executive and council races (June 24, 2026); Wikipedia’s 2018 and 2026 Maryland county executive elections pages, cross-checked against the campaign finance figures and primary results they cite from the State Board of Elections; the Baltimore Banner’s coverage of the Anne Arundel primary results, the Pickard-Crawford general election matchup, the Kyle Nembhard withdrawal, the Leitess-Grammas state’s attorney primary, and the Leitess disqualification proceedings in the Houston murder case; the Daily Record’s coverage of the Maryland Supreme Court’s March 2026 ruling in that case, cross-checked against the court’s own opinion (mdcourts.gov); Maryland Matters’ reporting on Pickard’s 2024 campaign launch and on June 2026 campaign finance filings in the county executive primary; and WMAR-2 News coverage of the 2022 county executive general election count.


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