Democrats hold District 34 by the narrowest margin in the state. A primary challenger her own county already rejected, a Republican electorate that held this seat for 30 years, and a governor whose approval is collapsing among independents make this November’s most watchable race.
By Michael Phillips | MDBayNews
In November 2022, Democrat Mary-Dulany James won Maryland’s 34th Senate District by 591 votes out of 45,223 cast—a margin of 1.3 percent. It was the closest Senate race in Maryland that year. It was also the first time a Democrat had held that seat since 1994.
Four years later, mail-in ballots for the June 23 primary are already in voters’ hands. James is on those ballots. So is a primary challenger her own Harford County already turned down—twice.
District 34 encompasses south Harford County, including Aberdeen, Edgewood, and Havre de Grace—a stretch of the upper Chesapeake Bay corridor that is working class, military-adjacent, and historically Republican. Before James flipped it by 591 votes, the district spent nearly three uninterrupted decades in Republican hands. The electorate that elected James is the same electorate now living with Governor Wes Moore’s first-term record on the cost of living.
The Moore Factor
A spring 2026 UMBC poll found that 59 percent of Marylanders believe the state is heading in the wrong direction—up from 48 percent in October. Among voters who said they pay too much in taxes, a hypothetical Republican challenger leads Moore by 13 points. Among unaffiliated voters, Moore’s approval has dropped 8 points in six months.
The Moore administration and its allies have sought to attribute the governor’s declining numbers to federal workforce anxiety generated by the Trump administration. But the UMBC data tells a more specific story: 27 percent of Moore disapprovers cite tax and fee increases as their primary grievance, 14 percent blame state spending, and 12 percent point to the rising cost of living and utility bills—a combined 53 percent of his disapproval rooted directly in state-level fiscal decisions.
Last year, Moore and the General Assembly raised taxes by a projected $1.6 billion as part of a plan to address a $3.3 billion structural deficit. The increases included income tax hikes, utility rate adjustments, and vehicle registration fees. In District 34’s communities—Aberdeen, Edgewood, Havre de Grace—those are not abstractions.
A Primary That Weakens Before the General Begins
James faces a contested Democratic primary against Blane H. Miller III, a Havre de Grace businessman who has now lost three consecutive bids for higher office: the 2022 Harford County Executive race, the 2024 Democratic primary for Maryland’s 1st Congressional District, and then the 2024 general election against incumbent Republican Andy Harris. Harris won that race with 59.4 percent of the vote.
Miller filed for the SD-34 Democratic primary in February 2025—more than a year before the filing deadline. His campaign website, votemiller4maryland34.com, emphasizes healthcare access, economic development, and climate policy. He is a U.S. Navy veteran with a degree in Business Administration and has been active in local economic development efforts in Harford County.
Whether Miller wins or loses the primary, the dynamic creates a complication for James. A competitive primary in June means resources spent and vulnerabilities exposed heading into November. If Miller wins, Republicans face a nominee with a recent high-profile loss on his record in the same geographic territory. Either outcome leaves the Democratic position in District 34 more exposed than it was after James’s 2022 win.
The Republican Side
The Republican primary has a single candidate: Raj Goel of Darlington, who filed in January 2026 under the committee name “Committee to Elect Raj Goel.” Goel has a clear lane to the Republican nomination without a primary fight, giving him the full period between now and November to build name recognition and consolidate support in a district that trends Republican at virtually every other level of government.
The last Republican to hold SD-34 was Bob Cassilly, who served multiple terms before departing to run for Harford County Executive in 2022. Cassilly won that race with 64.6 percent of the vote. That margin—in the same county, in the same cycle that James won the Senate seat by 591 votes—illustrates the structural lean of District 34. Harford County voters were willing to elect a Democrat to the state Senate by the barest of margins. They were not ambivalent about who they wanted running the county.
What This Race Measures
SD-34 is not a bellwether in the sense of predicting a statewide shift—Democrats hold a 34-13 Senate majority and are unlikely to lose it in 2026. But it is a precise measurement instrument for a specific question: does Wes Moore’s first-term fiscal record change the behavior of the narrow slice of Harford County voters who chose a Democrat for state Senate by 591 votes while simultaneously handing the county executive race to a Republican by 30 points?
Mail-in ballots are already circulating. The primary is June 23. The general election is November 3.
SOURCES: Maryland State Board of Elections, 2022 general election results; 2026 candidate filing records. UMBC poll, spring 2026. Wikipedia, 2026 Maryland Senate election. Harford Democrats candidate filing summary, February 25, 2026. WBOC/BallotReady candidate profiles. Baltimore Sun coverage of SD-34, 2022.
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