The Maryland Republican primary for governor is June 23. Hale, Cox, and Myrick are competing for the nomination — but in a state this blue, winning the primary and running a credible general election campaign may be two different things.
By Michael Phillips | MDBayNews
ANNAPOLIS — Eight weeks from today, Maryland Republicans will choose their nominee for governor. Incumbent Democratic Gov. Wes Moore is expected to sail through his own primary unopposed in any meaningful sense. The real contest is on the Republican side, where three candidates — former state delegate Dan Cox, Baltimore businessman Ed Hale Sr., and Air Force Reserve veteran John Myrick — are making their cases to a party still searching for an identity after a decade of Larry Hogan.
The stakes are real, even in a state this blue. Moore’s approval ratings have slipped below 50% as he closes a $3.3 billion budget deficit, raises vehicle registration fees, and campaigns on a national stage that many Marylanders view with ambivalence. The Republican who comes out of June 23 won’t be a favorite in November — but they can shape the conversation, force accountability, and build toward something. Or they can repeat the mistakes of 2022.
Here is where the race stands.
Dan Cox: The Known Quantity — For Better and Worse
Cox has the name recognition. He also has the baggage.
In 2022, Cox won the Republican primary and then lost the general election to Moore by more than 32 percentage points — one of the most lopsided gubernatorial defeats in modern Maryland history. The Democratic Governors Association spent money in the primary to boost Cox precisely because they viewed him as the easiest candidate to beat in the fall. That strategy worked.
Now Cox is back. He filed again in January, listed a new running mate, and is running on a familiar platform: constitutional conservatism, border security, opposition to COVID mandates, and alignment with the Make America Great Again movement. Trump endorsed him in 2022. The relationship hasn’t been disavowed.
The problem: Maryland hasn’t gotten more favorable to MAGA candidates since then. In 2024, Kamala Harris carried the state by 29 points. Democrats hold supermajorities in both chambers of the General Assembly and control every statewide office. His most recent campaign finance filing showed Cox attested to raising or spending less than $1,000 — a number that tells its own story about where his campaign stands.
Cox’s path to the primary nomination relies on name recognition and a loyal base in Carroll and Frederick counties. His path to a competitive general election is considerably harder to sketch.
Ed Hale: The Crossover Candidate Who Crossed Over
Hale is the race’s most unconventional figure — a 78-year-old lifelong Democrat, Baltimore Blast owner, and self-made businessman who switched party registration to Republican and announced he’d challenge Moore after concluding he couldn’t win a Democratic primary. He said as much publicly: “There’s no way I could win against Wes Moore with that machine he’s got.”
The Baltimore Banner has named Cox and Hale as the Republican frontrunners. Hale’s pitch is built on executive credibility: he founded trucking and shipping companies at the Port of Baltimore, built 343 buildings, served as CEO of 1st Mariner Bank, and developed the Canton waterfront. His policy platform emphasizes a freeze on fees, tax cuts for small businesses, and public safety funding — the kind of center-right economic message that historically travels best in a purple-trending state.
The question is whether the Maryland Republican base will accept him. The state’s Senate Minority Leader, Steve Hershey, made the skepticism official, issuing a statement saying, “Maryland Republicans deserve a nominee who represents our values — not just someone looking for a new political label.” Hale has also made clear he is not “a Donald Trump guy,” saying Trump’s endorsement would actually be a liability for him. In a primary electorate where Trump alignment still carries weight, that’s a complicated needle to thread.
Still, Hale’s crossover story is precisely what makes him interesting as a general election candidate. A Democrat-turned-Republican businessman arguing that Moore has abandoned Maryland for national ambitions could appeal to the suburban moderates and independents who decide statewide races. If he gets out of the primary.
John Myrick: The Military Credibility Play
Myrick is the longest-serving candidate in the field — he filed in February 2025, more than a year before the primary — and has built his campaign around military service, grassroots organizing, and a pledge to serve only one term. A 23-year Air Force Reserve veteran and federal executive consultant from Prince George’s County, Myrick has positioned himself as the outsider candidate with real national security credentials.
His recent move to put those credentials front and center — publicly releasing a signed military records authorization and demanding Moore do the same — is savvy primary politics. It elevates a transparency argument against Moore (who has refused to release his full military, academic, and athletic records despite a year-long investigation by Spotlight on Maryland that found gaps in his records) while casting Myrick as the candidate willing to be held to the same standard he demands of others.
Whether that contrast carries primary votes is uncertain. Myrick lacks Hale’s business profile and Cox’s existing name recognition. But in a fragmented field where the winner may only need a plurality, a candidate who runs hard in the final eight weeks with a sharp message and credible biography can overperform expectations.
The Polling Gap — and What We Know Instead
No public polling firm has released primary numbers for this race. No Gonzales Research survey, no Goucher poll, no UMBC Institute of Politics data breaks down Republican primary preference among the three leading candidates. That absence is itself a signal: this race has attracted almost no professional political attention, and the candidates have not generated the fundraising or momentum that typically prompts pollsters to spend money measuring it.
What does exist is a straw poll — and a telling one. On April 23, four Baltimore County Republican clubs hosted a Republican gubernatorial primary debate. More than 150 attendees voted at the end of the evening. Myrick took roughly 67% of that vote. The caveat is significant: both Cox and Hale skipped the debate entirely, for the second time, giving Myrick the stage to himself against lesser-known candidates. A straw poll of activated Republican club members at an event two of the frontrunners boycotted is not a scientific sample. But it does suggest Myrick has real energy among the party’s grassroots base — and that Cox and Hale’s decision to skip may be costing them with exactly the voters who show up to primaries.
The Real Question: Who Can Win in November?
Maryland Republicans face a structural problem. The state is one of the most reliably Democratic in the country. Larry Hogan was the exception that proved the rule — a moderate, crossover-appealing candidate who won two terms by explicitly distancing himself from national Republican branding. Hogan declined to run for his old job in 2026, a decision that, by most accounts, cleared the field of any Republican who might have made the race genuinely competitive.
What’s left is a three-way contest between a twice-failed candidate running on a platform Maryland voters have already rejected, a party-switching businessman who may struggle to consolidate the base, and a workhorse veteran who turns up everywhere but whose strongest argument is also his most recent move.
Moore, meanwhile, enters the general with more than $12 million raised. He has declining approval ratings. And regardless of what Spotlight on Maryland or Republican challengers say about his military record, he remains one of the most nationally prominent Democratic governors in the country.
The Republican nominee who emerges on June 23 will have roughly four months to define an alternative vision. The test isn’t just who can win the primary — it’s who, once they have the nomination, gives Maryland voters a credible reason to consider a different direction.
On that question, the jury is still very much out.
Primary election date: June 23, 2026. General election: November 3, 2026.
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