By Mike Phillips | MDBayNews — Maryland on the Map, Part 2
At some point, Maryland needs to have an honest conversation about what it is buying.
The state has committed $400 million in public bond financing — repaid through lottery and casino revenues — to demolish and rebuild Pimlico Race Course in Baltimore’s Park Heights neighborhood. The project is underway. Demolition is complete. The Preakness Stakes will run at Laurel Park in 2026 as a placeholder while construction continues, and the plan calls for a return to a rebuilt Pimlico in 2027.
Governor Wes Moore has called it a neighborhood investment as much as a sporting venue. The Maryland Stadium Authority frames it as an anchor for year-round economic activity and community development in one of Baltimore’s most distressed ZIP codes. The horse racing industry describes it as essential to preserving 28,000 jobs and a $2.9 billion equine economy.
These are real arguments. They deserve to be taken seriously. And a rebuilt, modern Pimlico that operates year-round, anchors community development in Park Heights, and gives the Preakness a venue worthy of its history is a legitimate vision for what this investment could deliver.
But $400 million is a large number. And the questions around it have not been answered with sufficient clarity.
What the Optimists Are Saying
State officials and racing industry stakeholders point to several concrete reasons for confidence.
The Oak View Group partnership is the most significant. OVG is not a racetrack operator — it is one of the most sophisticated sports and entertainment venue management companies in the world, responsible for Climate Pledge Arena in Seattle, Acrisure Arena in Palm Springs, and co-development at several major urban entertainment districts. Its involvement signals that the new Pimlico is being conceived as a genuine multi-use entertainment venue, not just a horse racing facility with better bathrooms.
The year-round racing model — expanding from roughly 15 Pimlico race days per year to 100 or more — is the economic foundation of the whole project. If the new facility can consistently draw crowds across the racing calendar, the per-event economics improve dramatically. The Preakness stops being the only thing supporting the investment and becomes the flagship of a functioning year-round operation.
The neighborhood component also matters politically and practically. The commitment to Park Heights housing and job training is not, by itself, transformative for one of Baltimore’s most challenged communities. But it is the kind of embedded community benefit that sustains political support for the project across administrations — and the Pimlico rebuild will need that support if costs escalate or timelines slip.
Proponents also point to the 2027 Triple Crown narrative as a potential launch accelerant. If a strong three-year-old comes out of the 2027 Kentucky Derby with the first two legs of the Triple Crown, the Preakness’s return to a rebuilt Pimlico becomes one of the major sports storylines of the year. That is not a plan, but it is a realistic possibility that would validate the investment in the public imagination, almost regardless of the underlying economics.
What the Skeptics Are Saying
Independent economists have a long track record of skepticism about sports venue subsidies, and the Pimlico project has not escaped that scrutiny.
UMBC economist Dennis Coates, whose research on the economic impacts of sports venues is among the most cited in the field, has consistently argued that the measurable net economic benefits of major sporting events are smaller than promotional studies suggest. The core problem is displacement: much of the spending attributed to an event like the Preakness would occur in the local economy anyway. Visitors who come for the Preakness may displace other visitors who avoid Baltimore that weekend. Locals who spend at the track might have spent at restaurants or theaters instead. The net new economic activity is typically a fraction of the gross numbers cited in promotional impact studies.
The Preakness’s own historical numbers are modest by the standards being used to justify the investment. Older economic impact studies pegged the event’s annual contribution at $35 to $38 million in total output, roughly 500 jobs, and approximately $2.5 million in tax revenues. Even the more optimistic projections associated with a rebuilt facility — $52.7 million in annual state economic activity — do not obviously justify $400 million in public capital on a standard return-on-investment analysis.
The structural question is the hardest one. Horse racing is not a growth industry. National attendance has been declining for decades. The handle has been sustained partly by the expansion of online wagering, which does not drive the local economic activity that in-person attendance does. Maryland is betting that a modern facility and year-round programming can reverse local trends even as the national industry continues to contract. That is possible. It is not guaranteed.
The fiscal mechanics also warrant scrutiny. The bonds are being repaid through lottery and casino revenues — revenue streams that are themselves vulnerable to competition from the expansion of online gaming and neighboring states’ gaming markets. If those revenue projections prove optimistic, the repayment burden falls on the state’s general budget or requires additional legislative action.
The Accountability Framework
What Maryland needs, and does not currently have in public-facing form, is a clear set of benchmarks against which the Pimlico investment will be measured.
Not promotional projections. Benchmarks. Specific, publicly committed metrics — attendance thresholds, racing day counts, tax revenue targets, Park Heights employment numbers — against which the Maryland Stadium Authority and MTROA will be evaluated on an annual basis, with consequences for underperformance.
The Masters and the Kentucky Derby succeeded because private institutions were accountable to their own financial sustainability. Augusta National cannot shift its losses to Georgia taxpayers. Churchill Downs cannot pass its capital costs to Kentucky bondholders. They succeeded or failed on their own. Public investment in sporting venues does not have that built-in discipline, which is why external accountability mechanisms matter.
The Maryland General Assembly, which authorized this investment, should require annual public reporting against specific performance metrics beginning with the 2027 Preakness. Not buried in a Maryland Stadium Authority annual report that receives no press coverage. Public, accessible, reported against commitments made at the time of authorization.
That is not opposition to the project. It is basic stewardship of $400 million in public funds.
The Bottom Line
Maryland made its bet. The wrecking crew has come and gone. The bonds are issued. The Preakness will run at Laurel in 2026 and return to a new Pimlico in 2027, and the state will spend the years that follow finding out whether it spent $400 million wisely.
The optimistic case is real. A rebuilt Pimlico with genuine year-round programming, a serious entertainment venue management partner, and the Preakness as its flagship could become something Baltimore genuinely needed — a major sports and entertainment anchor in a neighborhood that has not had one.
The skeptical case is also real. $400 million is a lot of money to spend on a sport in structural decline, secured by revenue streams facing their own competitive pressures, with economic impact projections that independent analysts have questioned for years.
The answer is probably somewhere in between, which is where the answers usually are. But Maryland has earned the right to demand specifics — not from advocates, not from industry stakeholders, not from officials with a political investment in the project’s success. From the numbers, over time, honestly reported.
That is the standard. The Masters cleared it without a dollar of public money. The Derby cleared it without a dollar of public money. The Preakness has $400 million in public dollars, and 154 years of history behind it.
Now it has to clear the bar.
Maryland on the Map is an ongoing MDBayNews series on the state’s sporting economy and public investment in major events.
Sources: Maryland Stadium Authority; Maryland Thoroughbred Racetrack Operating Authority; Oak View Group public statements; Governor Wes Moore office press releases; Maryland General Assembly Racing and Community Development Act (2020) and subsequent legislation; Dennis Coates, UMBC, economic impact research; Maryland Stadium Authority annual reports; Maryland Lottery and Gaming revenue data; Pimlico redevelopment project documents; Park Heights community development plan documentation; Maryland Department of Commerce.
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