Will He or Won’t He? Steve Hershey Weighs a Risky Run for Governor as the Clock Ticks

By MDBayNews Staff

With just weeks remaining before Maryland’s gubernatorial filing deadline, one major Republican name remains conspicuously absent from the official candidate list: Steve Hershey.

Hershey—formally Stephen S. Hershey Jr.—has done everything except pull the trigger. He formed an exploratory committee back in September 2025. He’s made high-profile media appearances. He’s issued pointed statements criticizing the direction of the state under Democratic leadership. And since former Gov. Larry Hogan formally ruled out another run in January, Hershey’s name has consistently surfaced as the GOP’s most credible statewide option.

Yet as of early February, he has not registered as a candidate.

That raises the unavoidable question: Is it worth giving up a safe Senate seat for a governor’s race stacked against Republicans?

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The Case For Hershey

Hershey is not a protest candidate or a fringe figure. He is the Maryland Senate Minority Leader, representing District 36 on the Upper Eastern Shore—Caroline, Cecil, Kent, and Queen Anne’s counties—a seat widely regarded as safely Republican.

His résumé is built for a general election argument:

• Former Delegate, first elected in 2010
• Appointed to the Senate in 2013, repeatedly re-elected
• Minority Whip before becoming Minority Leader in 2023
• Background in commercial real estate and state administration
• Served in the Ehrlich administration at DNR and Planning
• Civil engineering degree (Catholic University) and MBA (GWU)

In a deep-blue state like Maryland, Republicans rarely win statewide by running ideological firebrands. Hershey’s reputation as measured, pragmatic, and capable of working with Democrats fits the profile of what can win here—or at least compete.

That’s why outlets, activists, and even some Democrats quietly acknowledge that Hershey would be the GOP’s strongest nominee if he runs.

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The Case Against Running

The risk is real—and substantial.

If Hershey runs for governor, he must give up:

• A safe Senate seat
• His leadership post
• His role as a steady institutional counterweight in Annapolis

And the upside? A race against incumbent Democratic Gov. Wes Moore, in a presidential-cycle environment, in a state Democrats dominate by registration and fundraising.

Republicans have learned this lesson the hard way before. Maryland GOP primaries often reward candidates who excite the base—but struggle mightily statewide. Hershey knows this. He has publicly raised concerns about candidates who parachute into the party or rely on name recognition alone, warning that nominations “must be earned.”

Walking away from a guaranteed seat to fight an uphill race—one that could leave Republicans with less leverage in Annapolis if it fails—is not a trivial calculation.

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Reading the Tea Leaves

Hershey has been careful with his words. In January, he acknowledged the growing speculation but made clear he would not be rushed by headlines or pressure campaigns:

“I’m not going to make this decision based on pressure, headlines, or who enters the race.”

Instead, he’s focused on familiar themes: budget shortfalls, rising energy costs, taxes, affordability, and what he describes as increasingly partisan governance in Annapolis.

That messaging is deliberate. It sounds like a governor’s race. But it also preserves an exit ramp.

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The GOP’s Quiet Dilemma

Behind the scenes, Republicans face a strategic fork in the road:

• Option A: Hershey runs, consolidates institutional support, and gives the party its best shot in years—while risking a key Senate seat.
• Option B: Hershey stays put, Democrats remain favored statewide, but Republicans preserve leadership and stability in the legislature.

Neither path is painless.

What’s clear is this: Hershey doesn’t need to run. The party arguably needs him more than he needs the race. That alone may explain the hesitation.

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Final Countdown

With only weeks left to register, the window is closing fast. If Hershey intends to run, the decision will come soon. If he doesn’t, Maryland Republicans will head into 2026 knowing they passed on their most broadly appealing option.

Either way, the moment underscores a larger reality of Maryland politics: sometimes the smartest move is also the hardest one to justify.

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Scenario Box: What Happens If He Runs / What Happens If He Doesn’t

What Happens If He Runs

• Republicans get their strongest institutional candidate.
  If Steve Hershey enters the race, he likely consolidates donor interest, establishment backing, and media attention quickly—especially after former Gov. Larry Hogan ruled himself out.
• A real general-election contrast emerges.
  Hershey’s profile—policy-heavy, fiscally focused, and pragmatic—would allow Republicans to run a campaign centered on affordability, energy costs, and governance rather than ideological flashpoints.
• But the Senate GOP takes a hit.
  Hershey would have to give up a safe Eastern Shore Senate seat and step away from the Minority Leader role. Even if Republicans hold the seat, leadership continuity and leverage in Annapolis would be disrupted.
• The race remains uphill.
  Even with Hershey at the top of the ticket, defeating an incumbent Democratic governor in a blue state remains a long-shot proposition.

Bottom line: High upside for statewide credibility—high cost if it fails.

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What Happens If He Doesn’t

• Republicans preserve legislative stability.
  Hershey remains Minority Leader, maintaining institutional knowledge, caucus discipline, and negotiating leverage during a turbulent period in Annapolis.
• The GOP field stays fragmented.
  Without Hershey, the primary is more likely to be driven by base enthusiasm rather than broad electability—repeating patterns that have hurt Republicans statewide in past cycles.
• Democrats remain favored early.
  Absent a consensus GOP candidate, Democrats face less pressure to defend policy decisions or recalibrate messaging ahead of 2026.
• Hershey’s influence grows quietly.
  By staying put, Hershey avoids a risky bet and retains long-term relevance within Maryland Republican leadership.

Bottom line: Safer move for the party’s bench—less chance to change the statewide narrative.

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Contrast Sidebar: Hershey vs. Declared GOP Candidates

Factor	Steve Hershey	Declared GOP Candidates
Current Status	Exploratory committee only	Formally filed
Experience	Senate Minority Leader; long Annapolis record	Varies; some limited statewide exposure
Electability Argument	Pragmatic, institutional, crossover appeal	Strong base appeal, weaker general-election reach
Legislative Impact	Loss would weaken GOP Senate leadership	No current leadership role to lose
Campaign Risk	High personal and party risk	Lower personal risk, higher electoral ceiling risk
Message Focus	Budget, energy, affordability, governance	Ideological contrast, party identity
Media Perception	“Serious contender”	“Long-shot” or base-driven

Notable declared Republicans include figures such as Dan Cox, who entered the race earlier but remains polarizing in a statewide general election.

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Editorial Takeaway

Maryland Republicans are staring at a familiar dilemma: swing for the fences or protect what little ground they hold. Steve Hershey represents the rare case where the swing might actually make strategic sense—but also the rare case where losing would come at a real institutional cost.

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