Virginia’s Surplus Success vs. Maryland’s Structural Struggles

Governor Glenn Youngkin has something to brag about, and it’s not just political spin—it’s math. Since 2022, Virginia has recorded more than $10 billion in cumulative general fund revenue surpluses, far exceeding original budget estimates. These aren’t just numbers on a chart; they translate into $9 billion in direct taxpayer rebates and expanded funding for education, law enforcement, and behavioral health.

Youngkin’s surpluses tell a story of job growth, pro-business policies, and a government that sees taxpayers as partners—not piggy banks. It’s a contrast worth examining next door in Maryland, where fiscal management tells a much different tale.

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Virginia: Surpluses, Rebates, and a Thriving Economy

Youngkin’s approach has been straightforward: create an environment where businesses can thrive, and revenue growth follows. The result? Consistent over-performance against budget forecasts.

• $10 billion cumulative surplus (2022–2025)
• $9 billion returned directly to taxpayers
• Strategic investments in public safety, classrooms, and mental health

Virginia’s fiscal strength is a direct reflection of low-tax, pro-growth policies that have fueled job creation and attracted business investment. Instead of hoarding surpluses for government expansion, the administration has returned most of the excess to the people who earned it.

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Maryland: Surpluses That Disappeared into Mandates

Cross the Potomac, and the picture isn’t nearly as rosy. While Maryland also reported strong surpluses in FY 2022 and FY 2023—thanks largely to federal COVID relief and a temporary boom in tax receipts from high earners—the trend quickly reversed.

Maryland’s key figures from FY 2022–2025:

• FY 2022: $1.57B surplus vs. estimates, $1.12B unassigned balance
• FY 2023: $555M unassigned, but most of it pre-allocated to cover next year’s operations
• FY 2024: ~$367M discretionary balance (growth slowing)
• FY 2025: $521M surplus vs. estimates, $271M unassigned balance

In total, Maryland’s cumulative unassigned surpluses add up to about $2.3 billion—only 20–25% of Virginia’s $10 billion windfall.

Why so much smaller? Because Maryland’s political leadership leans heavily on mandatory spending commitments like the Blueprint for Maryland’s Future education reforms. Instead of cutting taxes or issuing rebates, Annapolis has locked itself into long-term obligations, leaving little flexibility when revenues slow.

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From Surpluses to Deficits

By FY 2025, Maryland’s economic reality started catching up: slowing growth, inflation, and ballooning costs pushed the state toward a projected $2.7 billion deficit in FY 2026.

Maryland’s reserves, including a $2.4 billion Rainy Day Fund, provide some cushion. But unlike Virginia, where surpluses sparked investment and relief, Maryland’s trajectory points toward higher taxes, more borrowing, or painful spending cuts to cover structural gaps.

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Different Philosophies, Different Results

Virginia and Maryland offer a real-time case study in fiscal philosophy.

• Virginia (Youngkin’s model): Keep taxes low, grow the economy, return surpluses to taxpayers, invest strategically in core services.
• Maryland (Moore’s model): Expand government programs, lock in spending mandates, and rely on one-time federal windfalls to cover the gaps.

The numbers tell the story: $10 billion vs. $2.3 billion. Virginia’s surpluses are not just bigger—they’ve been put to work in ways that strengthen both families and state finances. Maryland, meanwhile, is staring down a future of red ink.

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The Bottom Line

When taxpayers look at these two neighboring states, the lesson is clear. Virginia’s leadership embraced policies that empower workers and businesses, reward taxpayers, and control government growth. Maryland chose to feed the bureaucracy and gamble on endless revenue growth.

One state is sitting on a record of success. The other is preparing excuses for deficits.