By Michael Phillips | MDBayNews
When the Blueprint for Maryland’s Future—often called the Kirwan plan—passed in 2021, it was sold as a generational reset. A “world-class” education system. Equity at scale. High-quality teachers in every classroom. Universal pre-K. Career pathways. Billions in new funding phased in over a decade.
Five years and tens of billions of dollars later, the transformation has not materialized.
Instead, Maryland now faces falling enrollment, catastrophic math proficiency, a rising dropout crisis in Baltimore, ballooning staffing, declining certification standards, and structural deficits so severe that even Gov. Wes Moore has been forced to slow and pause core pillars of the plan.
The numbers tell a blunt story: inputs are up dramatically. Outcomes are not.
1. Enrollment Collapse During a Funding Explosion
For 2025–2026, Maryland public school enrollment fell to 880,231 students, the lowest level in a decade—down more than 11,000 in a single year. Nearly every district declined.
Over the same period:
- Homeschool enrollment surged above 42,000 (up sharply from pre-2020 levels).
- Nonpublic schools gained students.
- Kindergarten and middle school enrollment declined over a five-year span.
This is happening while state and local per-pupil funding climbs toward or exceeds $19,000–$23,000 per student in many jurisdictions.
The Blueprint’s funding model is enrollment-driven. Fewer students mean financial instability. Superintendents have asked the Moore administration for “stabilized aid” to avoid layoffs and closures.
Parents are voting with their feet.
The official explanation cites demographics, lower birth rates, and immigration enforcement fears. But the timing coincides precisely with the Blueprint’s aggressive funding ramp-up. The promise was that “world-class” improvements would attract and retain families.
The opposite is occurring.
2. Math Remains a Generational Disaster
The 2024–2025 MCAP results (released August 2025) show:
- ELA proficiency: 50.8%
- Math proficiency: 26.5%
- Grade 8 math proficiency: 8.7%
That means nearly three-quarters of Maryland students are not proficient in math.
Among Black and Hispanic students, proficiency hovers in the low teens.
Despite billions committed and five years of implementation, math remains in crisis. Gains exist—but they are incremental and far from transformational.
According to recent reporting by Project Baltimore and Chris Papst, Baltimore City’s dropout rate has surged to a 15-year high, exceeding 20% according to local reporting, meaning more than one in five students is leaving school before graduation.
If this is “world-class,” it is difficult to define the term.
3. Graduation Rates: Flat at Best, Regressing at Worst
The Class of 2025 four-year graduation rate fell to 86.4%, down from 87.6% the year prior.
Over the Blueprint era, graduation has essentially plateaued. The promised acceleration never arrived.
The most troubling declines occurred among Hispanic students and multilingual learners—precisely the groups the Blueprint was designed to lift.
The administration calls this “post-pandemic recovery.”
After $15–20+ billion in cumulative new or accelerated spending, “recovery” is a remarkably modest outcome.
4. Staffing Bloat While Students Decline
Between 2021 and 2026:
- Total public school employees increased by more than 10,000
- Enrollment declined slightly over that same period
- Non-instructional staff grew by roughly 25%
Maryland schools are employing more adults to serve fewer students.
Teacher pay has risen approximately 18%, averaging around $87,000 statewide. Yet outcomes remain stubbornly mediocre.
Critics argue the Blueprint has functioned as a public-sector employment expansion more than an educational reform.
5. The Teacher Quality Pillar Collapsed
The Blueprint’s core promise: high-quality, professionally certified teachers in every classroom.
Instead, non-professionally certified (conditionally certified) teachers nearly tripled:
- 2020: 2,312
- 2024: 6,598
- 2025: 6,177 (preliminary)
Nearly 10% of teachers lack full professional certification.
At the very moment Maryland promised world-class rigor, standards appear diluted.
6. Fiscal Reality Forced a Retreat
The Blueprint is projected to add roughly $3.8 billion annually once fully phased in, totaling more than $30 billion in additional spending over its first decade.
By 2025, Maryland faced structural deficits approaching $3 billion.
Gov. Moore proposed:
- Slowing per-pupil foundation increases
- Pausing collaborative planning time
- Freezing certain funding weights
- Scaling back universal pre-K expansion
Even Democratic lawmakers described the changes as a retreat.
If the plan were working as promised, scaling back would be politically unthinkable.
Instead, fiscal math forced a course correction.
7. Baltimore as a Case Study
Nowhere is the disconnect clearer than in Baltimore City.
Per-pupil spending there exceeds $23,000 in recent years.
Yet dropout rates are hitting 15-year highs.
Math proficiency in some schools approaches zero.
While state officials emphasize incremental “progress,” Project Baltimore has documented the on-the-ground reality: in too many schools, proficiency is near zero, dropout rates are climbing, and accountability remains elusive despite record funding.
The system absorbs funding at levels that rival private tuition. The outcomes resemble systemic collapse.
This is not merely slow progress. It is structural failure.
8. The Accountability Question
Defenders argue:
- It’s still early in a 10-year rollout.
- COVID distortions linger.
- Demographics are shifting nationally.
Those factors are real.
But five years and billions into implementation, early indicators should show decisive upward momentum.
Instead, Maryland shows:
- Enrollment decline
- Catastrophic math failure
- Flat or falling graduation
- Rising dropout rates in key districts
- Staffing growth disconnected from performance
- Teacher certification regression
- Structural budget strain
The Blueprint dramatically increased inputs. Outputs barely moved.
That is not transformation. It is inefficiency at scale.
9. The Political Ownership
The Blueprint passed under Gov. Larry Hogan but was vetoed and overridden. Its most aggressive implementation has occurred under Gov. Wes Moore.
Moore initially championed full funding. By 2025, he was slowing it to protect the broader budget.
Whether inherited or embraced, the plan now carries his administration’s imprint.
The data to date does not justify the rhetoric that accompanied it.
Conclusion: Expensive Promises, Modest Results
The Blueprint for Maryland’s Future was framed as a once-in-a-generation overhaul.
Five years in, Maryland has:
- Fewer students
- More staff
- More uncertified teachers
- Marginal academic gains
- Persistent achievement gaps
- Rising dropout crises in key districts
- A looming fiscal squeeze
Supporters say systemic reform takes time.
Critics argue that when tens of billions are committed, early results must demonstrate structural momentum.
So far, the transformation has not materialized.
If Maryland’s education experiment proves anything, it may be this: pouring unprecedented sums into a system without structural accountability does not guarantee world-class results.
It guarantees world-class spending.
Whether voters continue to tolerate that trade-off is the next test.
Reporting Credit: Project Baltimore’s Role in Exposing the Crisis
Much of what the public knows about Baltimore City’s academic decline comes not from official briefings, but from investigative reporting.
Fox45’s Project Baltimore, led by Chris Papst, has documented schools with zero math proficiency, grade manipulation concerns, chronic absenteeism, and a dropout rate now exceeding 20% — a 15-year high.
Their reporting has repeatedly exposed:
- Schools where no students are proficient in math
- Graduation optics masking weak mastery
- Administrative growth amid stagnant results
- Persistent equity gaps despite record funding
Any honest assessment of the Blueprint’s performance must acknowledge the reporting that brought these facts to light.
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